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BBCAT's communications at the state level, Spring 2006

Big Bend Climate Action Team

Email: bigbendcat@comcast.net; Website: www.bbcat.org

March 1, 2006

Dear Candidate _____:

We applaud you for your willingness to lead Floridians in these challenging times.  As you prepare for this major role, we ask you to consider your response to the most serious near and long-term issue facing this state— disruption of the climate.

Until recently, those who took a stand on climate were thought by some to be alarmists and were not taken seriously. That is no longer the case. Many more voters than in the past and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists believe that climate disruption is an issue to be taken very seriously and that action is urgently needed. We are certain that taking a stand on climate will favor your success in your campaign for Governor.

Florida is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and especially to severe storms and sea-level rise because of its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.  It is already suffering some irreversible damage as well as associated increased costs of living.  As other states have learned, a proactive response to climate change creates jobs and diversifies the economy.  We need a long-range action plan that makes us a more energy-independent state, a state in which desirable industries want to locate, and a national leader in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Big Bend Climate Action Team has prepared the attached position paper on the climate issue for your consideration and we are interested in following up with you on it.  We could help to develop a campaign position paper; draft an outline of what a climate action plan might look like; connect you with scientists working on this issue; or answer questions. 

We look forward to hearing from you. Please feel free to contact us at 2012 Middlewood Drive or at our email address or by calling member Pamela McVety at 850/422-1440.

Sincerely,

[signed for the Big Bend Climate Action Team by Pamela P. McVety and Steve Urse]

Position paper

Climate Change: A Call for State Leadership

Prepared for Candidates for Governor of Florida by the Big Bend Climate Action Team

February 2006

Email: bigbendcat@comcast.net; Website: www.bbcat.org

Issue

Florida can be a national leader in building an economy that enjoys energy independence and protects citizens from the disruption of climate change. With strong leadership from a dynamic governor, Florida can reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, limit destructive emissions, and establish a viable economy based on clean energy.

Florida once was a bellwether state in the nation when it came to caring for the environment, but in the last eight years, it has replaced progressive environmental stewardship with feel-good actions and public relations. Today, more than half of the states in the nation have surpassed Florida in implementing programs to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and consequent emissions of greenhouse gases.

Moreover, counter to the state’s best interest, Florida utilities currently are planning to construct six new coal-fired power plants, increasing the state’s greenhouse gas emissions even more. Thirty other states are taking action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions with incentives for energy conservation and efficiency, by looking to new technologies and more. Climate change harms the economy, the environment, and far more people than terrorism and war combined. Climate change demands prompt attention from every nation, state, and city, and Florida could become a leader in a new reduced-carbon economy.  Florida needs a state leader in the governor’s chair with a clear vision for doing our part to reduce disruptive climate change.

Background

Scientists concur that the world’s climate system is undergoing massive change. Science magazine, 3 December 2004, reported that there is now virtually unanimous scientific agreement on this issue. Mostly or entirely as a result of human activities, the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) is releasing large quantities of greenhouse gases (heat-trapping gases) that are changing the global climate. The major greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is emitted when fossil fuels are burned in power plants and in gasoline-powered vehicles. Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions would inevitably be accompanied by reductions in the emissions of several other heat-trapping gases.

Major climate changes are now occurring due to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the earth’s atmosphere. These changes include not only a long-term ground-surface warming trend but also warming of the ocean surface, warming of the deep ocean, changes in precipitation patterns, retreating glaciers, a rising sea level, increasingly intense storms, severe coastal erosion, and changing ocean circulation patterns.

A number of reputable climate scientists are concerned that we are close to reaching the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that will commit the earth to runaway, unstoppable climate change. (1, 2) This is particularly important to Floridians because once the warming became unstoppable, we could not halt the melting of the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets and sea level would rise as more than 20 feet, putting most of Florida under water over the next 100 to 200 years.  The Washington Post reported on 17 February 2006 that satellite data now shows the Greenland ice sheet melting twice as fast as predicted ten years ago.(3)  Dr. James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in NOAA stated February 10 in a talk in New York City that, “Action must be prompt, otherwise CO2 producing infrastructure that may be built within a decade will make it impractical to keep further global warming under 1 degree centigrade.”(4) Dr. Hansen and other climate scientists believe temperature increases above 1 degree centigrade can lead to dangerous climate change.

There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate, but the data are clearly alarming. Our climate is being severely disrupted, at a rate more rapid than at any time in the earlier history of life on earth, and even faster then was predicted just a few years ago. Human activity is the major cause—specifically, human activities that give rise to greenhouse gas emissions.

The impacts of climate change are already being felt worldwide and nationwide. Of the ten hottest years ever recorded, nine have occurred since 1995. The year 1998 broke all previous records, but now NASA reports that the year 2005 was even hotter. Even more recently, this past January averaged a full 8.5 degrees warmer, worldwide, than the average of all past Januaries on record. Numerous studies show that average high temperatures in the northern hemisphere have had no precedent in the last 2,000 years. Increased hurricane intensity appears to be related to warmer ocean temperatures.  Dr. Kerry Emanuel, a tropical meteorologist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, reported in the scientific journal Nature this past July that tropical storm intensity had doubled in the past 30 years.  A recent and tragic example of what a powerful hurricane can do is Katrina (2005), which left tens of thousands of people homeless in two states and New Orleans under water.

No one has done a tally, but data suggest that the costs of climate change impacts in Florida may have exceeded a billion dollars last year.  Florida is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of the relatively flat elevation along the 1,300-mile coastline where most of our citizens live.  Most vulnerable are our water supplies, homes and businesses, beaches, and coastal parks and forests due to sea level rise.  Increasingly violent storms are causing billions of dollars of damage with longer and longer periods of recovery.  Existing and projected impacts of climate change in Florida include the following: .

• Coastal parks and forests are being destroyed.  Globally, sea level is rising an average of 1.5 millimeters a year, which sounds like a small increment, but along Florida’s west coast at Waccasassa Bay, rising seas are converting up to two meters of forest to salt marsh each year. (5) T he uplands surrounding Waccasassa Bay are part of the Waccasassa Bay State Preserve.
  
  
• The year 2005 saw the busiest hurricane season of the century. Recovery costs are in the billions of dollars and will go on for decades.  Georgia Institute of Technology researchers report in Science, 6 September 2005, that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes. This trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations showing that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones.(6)
  
  
• Insurance costs are rising. Insurance costs are increasing and insurance companies are pulling out of the state. Another insurer left Florida altogether in 2005.(7)  According to Tom Gallagher, Chief Financial Officer, “Eight catastrophic storms in 15 months have caused more than $32 billion in insured damages, and Florida homeowners are bearing the brunt of this burden."(8) Insurance bills are predicted to increase as the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund is expected to use up its reserves by the start of the 2006 hurricane season.(9)
  
  
• Agricultural losses are in the billions. Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, droughts, and extreme storms. According to the Florida Department of Agriculture, the 2005 series of hurricanes cost agriculture more than $2 billion last year.(10)Paul Epstein, at Harvard College, wrote in the Washington Post that climate change is weakening trees through droughts and storm damage and increasing the reproduction, abundance and geographic range of bark beetles.(11) In 2001, Florida lost 17,600 acres of timber to the Southern Pine Bark Beetle.(12, 13)
  
  
• Deaths are quietly increasing. The health of the poor and of our senior citizens is increasingly impaired. Heat-related deaths are most likely under-reported, and available statistics indicate that they are on the rise.(14)
  
  
• Sea level rise is costing millions annually. Sea level rise and increasingly violent storms are eating away at our coastal infrastructure. Beach renourishment funding requests for FY 2005-2006 total approximately $67 million.
  
  
• Wildfires are destroying property. Increasingly intense droughts increase wildfire threats to forests and property. In 1998, which (until 2005 surpassed it) was the hottest year on record, more than a half million acres burned in Florida.
  
  
• Water supplies are jeopardized. Warmer temperatures accelerate the evaporation of moisture and, in combination with changes in precipitation, threaten our surface water supply. Rising sea levels increase the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers, which also threaten our freshwater supplies.(15) In many parts of the state, Florida’s accessible water supplies are already inadequate to meet projected water needs for agriculture and domestic consumption. 
  
  

• Everglades restoration is threatened.  The multi-billion dollar restoration of the Everglades, one of the costliest restoration projects in the world, is threatened by sea level rise. Modeling by researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey and others predicts that over the next century mangroves will spread north and the Everglades freshwater marsh/swamp will decrease.(16)
  
  
• Coral reefs are dying.  Coral bleaching has intensified over the past two decades as ocean temperatures have increased. As corals die, commercial and recreational fisheries, worth more than a billion dollars a year statewide, decline.(17)
  
  
• The cost of living is increasing. It is becoming increasingly expensive to live and do business in this state, in part because of the ongoing unrecognized effects of climate change.
  

Need for Government Action

Americans are now calling for government action on global warming. A July 2005 study by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland reports that three of four Americans embrace the idea that the global warming problem requires action. A very large majority support strategies that involve switching from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.(18)

Economic benefits can be expected to arise from these actions. Most people now believe these will benefit the U.S. economy. By taking a proactive approach, shifting away from fossil fuels, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cities and states can reduce their energy costs, protect air quality and public health, and improve the environment. Clean energy is good for business. Clean energy means increasing energy efficiency and expanding use of renewable energy sources such as sun, wind, flowing water, and biomass. Clean energy adds diversity and security to the energy resource mix. It can lower electric bills. It can strengthen the state economy by creating jobs for designers, engineers, installers, builders, plumbers, architects, construction workers, and many others. It can lower health care costs. Further more, clean energy can help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.(19)

The actions our state must take are urgent and major.  Worldwide, many nations are responding to this directive with climate action plans.(20) States other than Florida are also responding to the need for action and many are voluntarily developing climate action plans. As of May 2004, 28 states and Puerto Rico have taken steps to reduce energy usage and carbon emissions. There is no federal standard for carbon-dioxide emissions, but states are imposing caps on the amount of carbon dioxide that utilities can emit, and are allowing utilities to trade their rights to emit this and other greenhouse gases. States are also requiring improved efficiency of electricity use and are imposing mandatory renewable energy portfolios on electric utilities so that more of their electricity will be derived from renewable fuels, which are carbon neutral.(21)

Cities are also taking action. During 2005, the mayors of 164 cities representing all 50 states signed a Climate Protection Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and agreed to urge their states and the federal government to adopt policies that would achieve reduction targets.

The state of Florida, however, has no climate action plan. The January 17, 2006 Florida Energy Plan has recommendations that encourage energy conservation, efficiency and diversity, but its main focus is on meeting our growing energy demand with fossil fuels, not reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.  The state works closely with utilities to modernize power plants and reduce air pollutants. The state also supports efficiency in coal-burning power plants. These efforts do little to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and they do not constitute a comprehensive plan that provides targets for reduction and addresses all sources of greenhouse gas emissions—all utilities, transportation, and industry in the state.  Our state energy office focuses on voluntary energy efficiency activities on a scale so small that it produces no measurable reduction in overall greenhouse gas emissions. These efforts fall far short of meeting Florida’s responsibility.

In view of the need for urgent action to reduce climate change impacts, Florida is moving in the wrong direction. The proposed construction of six additional coal fired power plants in Florida is unbelievable, given our current state of knowledge and the warning by James Hansen, the leading climate scientist in this country and others.  The state’s greenhouse gas emissions are not only increasing, but are rising faster than the population as a whole. Department of Environmental Protection data from 1990 to 2000 show that Florida’s greenhouse gas emissions increased by 26 percent over this 11-year period. About 80 percent comes from the burning of fossil fuels by electric utility and transportation sectors, divided about equally between the two. From 1990 through 2000 the state’s population increased by 24 percent, while its greenhouse gas emissions from all sources increased by about 26 percent.(22)

A Climate Action Plan for Florida

A state climate action plan has detailed steps that reduce the contribution the state makes to climate change. Each state has a plan designed for its own economy, resource base, and political structure. To be effective, each plan must have targets for emission reductions and incentives for emission-reducing technologies, and must address all energy sectors in the state—utilities, transportation, and industry. Florida’s climate action plan should identify and set Florida-specific, cost-effective targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the necessary job training and incentives to restructure the economy.

In the utility sector, the state should impose caps on the amount of carbon dioxide that each utility can emit and allow utilities to trade the rights to emit greenhouse gases. The state should provide incentives for efficient electricity use and should require utilities to use defined percentages of renewable energy resources, percentages that increase every year.

In the transportation sector, Florida should move towards a transportation system that features public transport. It should also provide incentives to make the environment more bicycle- and pedestrian-friendly. All state agencies, counties, and municipalities should reduce emissions from their vehicle fleets. This would cut fuel use, reduce air pollution in cities, and increase opportunities for exercise. Industries within the state should also be required to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. Some industries assert that to do so would be costly and would place a burden on the economy, but study after study has shown that reducing emissions is one of the most profitable steps that an industry can take. DuPont, one of the world’s largest chemical manufacturers, has already cut its greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 65 percent. In its 2002 annual report, the CEO proudly reported savings of $1.5 billion from 1990 to 2002 thanks to energy efficiency gains.(23)

Our citizens should be encouraged to take personal responsibility for their carbon emissions, beginning with calculating their magnitude. (Easy-to-use carbon calculators are available on the Internet at www.CO2.org.) State government and local utilities can provide guidance on the most cost-effective steps to take, such as installing compact fluorescent light bulbs in the most commonly used lamps around the house.  By replacing four standard bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs, one can prevent the emission of 5,000 pounds of carbon dioxide and reduce the electric bill by more than $100 over the bulbs’ life.  If only 1,000 of us replaced four standard bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs, we could prevent the emission of five million pounds of carbon dioxide and reduce our electric bills by more than $100,000 over the bulbs’ life.

Other entities can and should take similar steps. Government agencies, small businesses, schools, and industrial sites all can contribute toward climate protection while, themselves, benefiting in the process.  

Governor’s Role in Curbing Climate Change

As leader of the seventeen million people of the State of Florida, the person in the Governor’s chair has a tremendous opportunity to take steps to avert threats from the world’s changing climate that are particularly disruptive to Floridians. Tackling this issue can be a win for all. Money can be saved, the economy expanded, and the environmental threat reduced.   Further, when Congress regulates carbon emissions, which is already under discussion,(24) our state’s proactive measures will reduce the economic impact on citizens and the business sector.  Florida’s new Governor could become a national leader in a new carbon-reduced economy and return Florida to its status as a bellwether state. The Big Bend Climate Action Team would like to work with a candidate who honestly, boldly, and powerfully confronts this issue, educates our citizens about it, and steers the state towards a safe and healthy future.

Endnotes 

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1. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, January 2006: Scientific Symposium on Stabilization of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, February 1-3, 2005, Met Office, Exeter, U.K.

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2. Can We Still Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Climate Change? February 10, 2006, James E. Hansen, Presentation at New School University, New York City.

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3. Glacier Melt Could Signal Faster Rise in Ocean Levels, February 17, 2006, Washington Post.

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4. Can We Still Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Climate Change, February 10, 2006, James E. Hansen, Presentation at New School University, New York City.

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5. Sea Level Rise Behind Tree Deaths on Florida’s West Coast, UF Researchers Report, Aaron Hoover, Science Daily, October 15, 1999.  Source: Francis Putz, email fep@botany.ufl.edu.

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6. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment, P.J. Webster, G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry, H.R. Change, Science, 16 September 2005, Vol. 309, no. 5742, pp. 1844-1846.

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7. “Opportunity Lurks in Florida Market: Insurers in hurricane-prone Florida may find opportunity to gain market share as some leave market”, www.CNNMoney.com August 1, 2005.

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8. Press Release, Department of Financial Services, January 17, 2006, “Gallagher Renews Call for Insurance Reforms.”

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9. “Another Insurance Shock is Forecast, Joni James, St. Pete Times, January 20, 2006.

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10. Press Release, Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, December 27, 2005, “Bronson Lauds Disaster Relief for Agriculture.”

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11. Climate Change is Really Bugging Our Forests, The Washington Post, September 7, 2003, Page B05, Paul R. Epstein and Gary M. Tabor, Harvard College.

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12. www.fl-dof.com/forest_management/fh_insects_spb.htm.

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13. According to the Division of Forestry, mismanagement practices contribute to the spread of the bark beetle.

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14. Florida Department of Health, Office of Vital Statistics, Deaths from Exposure to Excessive Natural Heat, Florida, 1979-2004.

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15. Inside the Greenhouse, Climate Change:  Spotlight on Florida, EPA, February 21, 2006.

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16. SELVA-MANGRO: An Integrated Landscape and Stand Simulation Model for Predicting Mangrove Forest Growth and Distribution across the Everglades Coastal Margin under Changing Climate; Thomas Doyle, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, Lafayette, LA, USA, Thomas Doyle, U.S. Geological Survey, Kenneth Krauss, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, Lafayette, LA, USA, Marcus Melder, IAP World Services, Lafayette, LA, USA, Jason Sullivan, IAP World Services, Lafayette, LA, USA, Andrew From, IAP World Services, Lafayette, LA, USA, Climate Change Science Program Workshop, 2005, Coastal Management: Application of Climate Science.

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17. History of Mass Coral Bleaching in the Florida Keys:  What We Know and Data Gaps, Bill D. Causey, Superintendent, Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Power Point Presentation, February 10, 2005 Workshop to Design A Mass Coral Bleaching Impact Assessment.

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18. www.pipa.org/onlinereports/Climatechange.report07_05_05.

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19. “Redirecting Florida’s Energy: The Economic & Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy Policies, Florida Public Interest Research Group, February 2005.

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20. A climate action plan has detailed steps that lead to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions: A climate action plan identifies cost-effective opportunities to reduce GHG emissions that are relevant to a country, state or local government.  The individual characteristics of each plan depend on the country’s or state’s economy, resource base, and political structure.  Each plan must have targets for emission reductions, must also have incentives for cleaner technologies, and must comprehensively address all energy usage to be effective. www.pew.org.

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21. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/actionsstateactionplans.htm

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22. Personal Communication, Division of Air Management, Department of Environmental Protection Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2000.

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23. Cutting Carbon Emissions.  Chapter 9.  “Cutting Carbon Emissions in Half.  Lester R. Brown, Plan B:  Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble.  W.W. Norton & Co., NY: 2003.

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24. Design Elements of a Mandatory Market-Based Greenhouse Gas Regulatory System, February 2006, Senators Pete V. Domenici and Jeff Bingaman.